On Elections

How people elect parliaments

Trump caravan momentum grows again

New York Billionaire Donald Trump has – as was widely expected – prevailed in the Republican primary election in South Carolina. In a field with the vote divided between five significant … Continue reading

February 21, 2016 · Leave a comment

Trust the punters to predict an election

Since the 2000 election year, one of the more intriguing predictors of US political outcomes has been the Iowa Electronic Market. Run out of the University of Iowa’s College of Business, … Continue reading

February 19, 2016 · Leave a comment

Trump, Sanders win presidential races in New Hampshire

As expected, Donald Trump secured a solid win today in the New Hampshire election of delegates to help decide the 2016 Republican nominee for President. [Update 11 February: 100% of … Continue reading

February 10, 2016 · Leave a comment

Update: US Presidential primaries

10-11 February 2016 – New Hampshire results Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders each won their presidential nomination contests in New Hampshire today, underlining the anti-establishment mood of voters in both parties. Two … Continue reading

February 10, 2016 · Leave a comment

The Republican establishment’s three-body problem

The 2016 race for the Republican nomination for US president looks destined to become a historic case study in three-sided single-winner electoral contests. The Democrats, ironically, are showing just how simple … Continue reading

February 9, 2016 · Leave a comment

Rubio leads the Republican race

Iowa is over. You’ve seen the media: Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders tied for the Democrats, and Ted Cruz beat Donald Trump for the Republican race. Many pundits, however, see … Continue reading

February 5, 2016 · Leave a comment

The impact of US presidential endorsements

The first primary event of the US presidential nomination season – the Iowa caucuses – are now in. All the talk is of relative momentum between the candidates, and momentum … Continue reading

February 5, 2016 · Leave a comment

Update: US Presidential primaries

4 February 2016 – Iowa caucuses aftermath The primary elections and caucuses commenced on Monday 1 February with the Iowa caucuses. The next event is the New Hampshire primary election on 8 February. Three … Continue reading

February 3, 2016 · Leave a comment

Iowa: watch out for the turnout rates

One of the final polls before Iowa’s caucuses tonight has support among Republican voters for Donald Trump at 28%, Ted Cruz at 23% and Marco Rubio at 15%. It’s been … Continue reading

February 1, 2016 · Leave a comment

Sanders’ campaign breaks supporter record

  Just hours before the Iowa caucuses are held, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders’ campaign for the Democratic nomination to the US presidency has announced a record-breaking number of donations from individual Americans. … Continue reading

February 1, 2016 · Leave a comment