On Elections

How people elect parliaments

UK Election 2017 – Polling and predictions

Final polls before Thursday’s British general election are proving surprisingly diverse, with estimates of the gap between the governing Conservatives and the Labour party across England and Wales varying from … Continue reading

June 8, 2017 · Leave a comment

Americans are voting, perhaps in record numbers

Across America – and around the world – there is the clattering sound of dice rolling today. And the dice are loaded. All forecasters agree that Hillary Clinton is much more … Continue reading

November 9, 2016 · 2 Comments

As tensions rise in US elections, leading pollsters feud over methods

The leaders of two of America’s major polling services are at loggerheads over whether FiveThirtyEight.com’s predictions about Donald Trump becoming president are reliable. The 2016 elections have seen more polls … Continue reading

November 7, 2016 · Leave a comment

Americans have little control over their Representatives

The United States House of Representatives is the first institution described in detail in the text of the US Constitution, but it normally comes a distant third behind the presidency … Continue reading

November 6, 2016 · Leave a comment

7 days to go in US elections

In seven days’ time the results of the US elections will be blazing from news services around the world. What are the predictions one week out? The most established of … Continue reading

November 2, 2016 · Leave a comment

US election: tracking who is winning

As the world anxiously watches the race for the United States presidency, a variety of opinion-tracking services are desperately trying to predict who is winning. The third presidential debate takes … Continue reading

October 20, 2016 · 2 Comments

Trump sees off last rival

Ohio Governor John Kasich didn’t hang on in the race for the Republican presidential nomination in the United States. His withdrawal late on Wednesday would seem to confirm that the party … Continue reading

May 5, 2016 · Leave a comment

Republican delegate selection for March 1

March 1 will be the biggest day on the 2016 calendar for choosing candidate delegates to the Republican Party Convention taking place in July. All eyes are on the relative … Continue reading

March 1, 2016 · Leave a comment

Markets dump stock in rivals to Clinton and Trump

The insightful Iowa Electronic Market – an online real-investment prediction market that has tracked US elections since 2000 – is moving sharply to predict the next Republican and Democratic nominees … Continue reading

February 28, 2016 · Leave a comment

Trust the punters to predict an election

Since the 2000 election year, one of the more intriguing predictors of US political outcomes has been the Iowa Electronic Market. Run out of the University of Iowa’s College of Business, … Continue reading

February 19, 2016 · Leave a comment